05 February 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - How Sweet It Is

“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting.  Got that?  My sitting tight!

Those who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.”

Jesse Livermore

I had such a feeling that these jokers were going get stuffed on the usual Non-Farm Payrolls precious metals hit.  And I may have had some modest wagers in that direction from this morning.

But for most of us, and for most of my own portfolio, we do not wager against The Bucket Shop and exhaust ourselves trying to play their short term wiggles, dodges and headfakes with their synthetic gold.

We 'get right and sit tight.'  And I am seeing confirmation after confirmation that the fundamentals on the precious metals are solid, to be understated about it perhaps when so many will be going hyperbolic.

There are still difficulties, and things could turn rather ugly on the political fronts.  Who can predict that sort of thing?  But based on the knowable, things are unfolding in a very rational manner for those who can see past the noisome rantings of the financiers and their economic status quo.

One might take measures to get their metals into more appropriate places for 'insurance.'  And that means out of any unallocated accounts, or places presided over by the bullion banks and their associates, where ownership could become a debating point under duress, as in the case of MF Global.

If Nick Laird's analysis of the 'gold float' is correct, then we should start seeing fireworks on the physical front sometime later this year.

I have drawn the beginnings of the 'cup and handle' on the chart. The 'handle' will form on the right, and will take the shape of a retracement from wherever the top of the cup may be.

It will not be an active formation until the retest is successful, the handle is set, and the price of gold breaks back out to new highs.

That is a lot of things that may or may not happen from here.

But for now I will just say, have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - That's Key Support, Bring On Next Week

Nice economic recovery.   Not.

Stocks have fallen to key support.  I still think the SP 500 is forming a symmetrical triangle or a bear flag with more downside to come, but we'll have to see how next week goes.

There will be no sustainable recovery until there is meaningful financial and economic reform.

The natives are restless, but confused.  And so the outcome is uncertain.

And if we listen to the well spun lies and vote in another 'establishment' candidate in a hope for change, while they have been bought and paid for by big money, backed by their respective political machines that have become so horribly compromised by the soft corporate bribery that passes under the label of 'campaign contributions,' then we we most certainly see no real reform, and no recovery.

Have a pleasant weekend.

04 February 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls Tomorrow

Gold continued to advance higher and silver joined in, edging up to the cusp of the 15 handle.

They are a little short term overbought, and we are going to be enjoying another chapter in the ongoing fictional story of the US Economic Recovery tomorrow.

I refuse to draw the tentative 'cup and handle' formation on the charts for fear of jinxing it.  I know, but hey its hard for any trader to be perfectly rational ALL the time, especially in the teeth of a three year bear market that seems to defy all the facts and fundamentals.

There was little to no delivery activity for the PM's at The Bucket Shop yesterday.  The movement of bullion being shoved around the plate at least in the case of silver is noted in the reports below.

Let's see if gold can push up to that 'blue line' overhead on the chart and stick a close sometime this active month of February.

Everything about these markets and our glorious recovery reminds me of a predetermined decision about the future course of events, and monumental efforts to bring about their appearance by The Fed, the financial establishment's Adjustment Bureau.

And who then, after our little noted financial coup d'etat, is now the real Man in the High Castle?

Much Ado About Not So Much

Speaking of the Fed, I heard from a friend about a video from Mike Maloney that highlights a big drop in the Federal Reserve Banks aggregate Balance Sheet of about $20 Billion in December of last year.

There was some questioning and speculation about this being due to some behind the scenes banking crisis.

Although I don't read them as much anymore, a quick look at the Fed's H.4.1 release from December revealed this statement below by way of explanation.

Net-net the change was a bookkeeping maneuver in response to the 'Fixing America's Surface Transporation Act' (FAST) which was enacted on 4 December 2015.  They were required to transfer certain amounts in excess of $10B to the Treasury, where they would eventually end up anyway after expenses.  The Fed is a cost-based entitlement to the Banks.

Our first impulse when encountering an interesting diversion from the familiar ought to be to examine the available evidence and ask a lot of questions, especially with regard to facts.

But that does not mean that irregularities and unexplained things do not occur. Sometimes they do. And they are dismissive by the same type of 'normality bias' and ludicrous arguments by the apologists for the serial felons who have been rigging almost every market there is for the last ten years or so.

And there are plenty of odd things going around these days, swirling in the fog of 'currency war.'

Have a pleasant evening.

FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
For Release at
4:30 P.M. EST
December 31, 2015

Publication Note

The Board's H.4.1 statistical release, "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks," has been modified to reflect the policies under which Federal Reserve Banks make payments of their residual net earnings to the U.S. Treasury.

The Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act (FAST), which was enacted on December 4, 2015, requires that aggregate Federal Reserve Bank surplus not exceed $10 billion. Therefore, any amount of aggregate Reserve Bank surplus that exceeds this limit will be remitted to the U.S. Treasury.

The line "Interest on Federal Reserve Notes due to U.S. Treasury" on table 6 has been replaced with "Earnings remittances due to the U.S. Treasury" and footnotes to tables 1, 5, and 6 have been similarly modified.

The amounts of the line items "Other liabilities and capital" on table 1, and "Surplus" on tables 5 and 6 reflect the payment of approximately $19.3 billion to Treasury on December 28, 2015, which was necessary to reduce aggregate Reserve Bank surplus to the $10 billion limitation in the FAST Act.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Credibility Trap

"The fear of a backlash against the political establishment is absolutely palpable in Washington. Whatever they may dutifully mouth in public, even the professional denizens of the nation's capital really believe that there has been a recovery.  It is not difficult to believe in a recovery when your stock portfolio has been inflated by the Fed's QE. So, they are all genuinely mystified about why the common folk are restless."

Le Cafe's Samoan Attorney in Washington DC

Well technically he is Greek, but has a polymathic intellect of truly Samoan proportions. And he tends to hang out with the politicos, such is the nature of his business.

I have a real gut hunch that the glitterati, money boys, and Very Serious People are walking into a serious encounter with reality due in large part to their self-inflicted insularity, the herd mentality of the privileged few, hubris beyond all doubt, and of course the credibility trap and the wonderful ability of people to rationalize anything that favors them in the short term, without regard to future risks.

Maybe they will get the wake up call as the presidential race unfolds. One of my favorite bellwethers are the TV political talk show hosts, on Sunday morning and in the evening on some of 'those channels.' And brother, they could not buy a clue for the most part, and seem to be in intense shock and denial. Only Gene Robinson seems to get it, and he is playing it cool so as to not shock his brethern who are clinging to their sinecures and the 'old ways' of doing business.

Its a classic. Marie Antoinette times Tsar Nicholas in an inability to read the great changes of their times. Wha' happened??

We know that Hillary is carrying water for Wall Street and Big Pharma, but Greg Palast asks who owns Rubio, now that Jeb! is reverting to the mean?  

Stocks managed to fight back to near unchanged today, with a little help again from oil which held its footing.

Once again the financial data sucked out loud. There is no recovery, it is a vapor, a phantom, a creation of the great spin machine of the airwaves. Years of policy errors, abusive growth of monopolies, the overturning of sound regulation, and the coup de grace, the pervasive political corruption enabled by Citizen's United.

Tomorrow we get the Non-Farm Payrolls.  That is often a best-seller in the fiction category. Watch the prior report revisions.

Have a pleasant evening.

03 February 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

"Even on the highest peak we will not be 'beyond good and evil,' and the more we experience of their inextricable entanglement the more uncertain our moral judgement will be... The wrong we have done, thought, or intended will wreak its vengeance on our souls, no matter whether we turn the world upside down or not."

Carl Jung

Gold in particular had a nice breakout on paper today, with silver following along but still a bit sluggish, and not reclaiming the 15 handle.

Friday will be the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Let's see what flavor of shenanigans we may enjoy. It may not be the usual vanilla scam topped with brazen sauce.

The dollar took a nose dive as you can see from the chart below. Keep in mind this is the DX index which is out of date in today's more globalized world.

There was another burst of gold action in the Comex warehouses yesterday, with the monthly total now a big 76,800 ounces of bullion 'delivered.'  It generally does not go anywhere, just a change of nametags for the most part.

You will know things are falling apart overseas, probably in London or Shanghai, when the registered gold dries up and even JPM cannot step in and easily cover the demand.  It will not be a default, but it *could* look like a run on the physical if the guys moving the shells and the pea slip up.

So let's see how we close the week.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Risorgimento

After the bell they were missing earnings, or making the earnings and missing the revenues, or some reasonable facsimile thereof.

Stocks did a big midday turnaround off the lows, because 'oil showed some strength' and the dollar was taking the short term siesta and falling over.

Right now it appears on both charts that we have a decent chance of forming continuation patterns, either a bear flag or a symmetrical triangle. The bear flag has a higher chance of moving lower next, with the symmetrical triangle still bearish but not quite as much.

The economic news continues to stink up the place.

Today had all the hallmarks of a very technical move designed by the pros and algos to shake out the 'investors.' It is like Planet of the Apes, with the short term insiders as the gorillas, having all the horses and weapons, and spend their days hunting down the rest of us, the human beings.

They are not smarter. Don't give cheaters that kind of praise. This is not a market anymore; this is a carney sideshow, three card monty.  But they are not too lazy to steal, I will give them that.  Too bad they can stick their hands into your pockets via Washington even if you are not playing their games directly anymore.

Have a pleasant evening.