30 October 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Let It Be Written, and Let It Be So


"A society becomes totalitarian when its structure becomes flagrantly artificial: that is, when its ruling class has lost its function but succeeds in clinging to power by force or fraud. Such a society, no matter how long it persists, can never afford to become either tolerant or intellectually stable..."

George Orwell

This is the underlying message in the  young adult three book series The Hunger Games.

Stocks were able to rally higher today, back almost to levels of a few weeks ago,  on the better than expected estimate of GDP for the 3Q.     That GDP number was dependent on a few one offs like government spending, largely of the military kind, and on a more favorable trade balance.

Excelsior.

The exercise today was very much about proving that the Fed did the right thing in ending QE III, and that there need be no large decline in equities.  There is no coincidence in any of this.

There is a natural tendency to be optimistic and to wish for good things to happen.  The difficulty is when those steering the ship keep making poor decisions and following policies that are not productive.  And this unfortunately is the case today.

What will it take to change my mind?  A real media wage that is growing commensurate with GDP, so that domestic consumption can also grow and fuel the real economy without artificial stimulant and welfare spending on corporations and the military-industrial complex.

Fair enough?  Until then in my personal judgement the economy is neither self-sustaining nor stable. Yes I understand about lags.  And six years is one hell of a lag for those not receiving the beneficence of a trickle down corporatist welfare state.

Have a pleasant evening.








NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds



I did not have the opportunity yet to update the metals holdings or cash levels in the below.



29 October 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - FOMC and the Usual Shenanigans


The Fed announced the end of QE III today as had been expected by almost everyone. And after a pause on the news, the dollar soared, precious metals and oil dumped, and stocks slumped, although stocks came back to nearly unchanged by the end of day.

See the commentary on stocks below for more about what the Fed said today.

Nothing has changed. Not one thing. And that is about nine-tenths of the problem that is causing this six year non-recovery for Main Street.  

We still have a rotten financial system acting like an unproductive tax and a drag on the real global economy, sowing malinvestment and distortions in whatever it touches and then some. 

Have a pleasant evening.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Downward Spiral of Dumbness


"The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.

Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated."

FOMC Statement, Oct 29, 2014

I think Bob Pisani literally squeaked when he read 'sooner' in the underlined portion of that FOMC statement, asserting that this was a 'hawkish' statement indeed.  He did not bother to reference the next sentences that begins, 'conversely.'

And I think the wiseguys knew that the Fed was basically saying nothing new, but throwing a farewell bone to the hawk Plosser on the committee, who won't be around after the first of the year, and the complexion of the FOMC turns decidedly more dovish in nature.

The US dollar spiked, but forex has a notorious carney game intraday, but that moved key commodities like gold and oil in the 'right direction' which is down. 

And the hosts and guests on bubblevision continued to burble on about 'rate increases' and 'amazing corporate profits' for the rest of the afternoon.

I am sure we will have loads of fun speculating about what the Fed will do next for quite some time.

Let's see how the rest of the world takes the news that the Fed has its hand on the tiller of the world's economy, to take it where they will.

I think the Fed will move when something forces their hand, and not one minute before.  And I will be glad but surprised if it is a booming economy fueled by organic growth and domestic consumption  next year.

Have a pleasant evening.











FOMC On QE III: Mission Accomplished


It is mission accomplished for the Fed's third stimulus program, if one keeps in mind that Quantitative Easing is a subsidy program for the one percent and Wall Street, not the general public and Main Street.

It is the fallacy of trickle down economics at its most blind and pernicious.

At the end of the day, the Fed's objective has been to bail out and preserve their owners in the Banking System, largely intact, down to their thoroughly rotten core.   The Fed is not the government.  The Fed works with its friends in the government.  The Fed is a creature of the Banks.

And the public is being forced to pick up the tab through financial repression and a stealth austerity through market manipulation, money printing, and price rigging.



Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System


For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Although inflation in the near term will likely be held down by lower energy prices and other factors, the Committee judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.

The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program. Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month....

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.


28 October 2014

Nomi Prins: Why the Financial and Political Systems Failed


Nomi Prins calls out the policy error deluxe that has been the topic of so much commentary at Le Café over the past few years.

What is perhaps most striking is that this failure is so bipartisan in a time of contentiousness.   It crosses not only parties but professions, from academics to politicians.

As you know I have featured several articles and videos of hers as she introduces her latest book, All the President's Bankers which is insightful, well-founded and researched, and essential to any understand of what is happening today.
 
As you know I have ascribed this to the credibility trap.   Insiders never speak ill of insiders, if they which to remain a part of the power elite. This is reinforced in the Ivy League and the halls of power.   And so leaders and potential leaders are hopelessly compromised and entangled in a self-serving system of abuse of power and corruption.

It is part of a general failure of moral conscience and leadership in the country.   It has been or is being repeated in England and other countries in Europe.  It is the reason for the long stagnation of the Japanese economy.
 
This is a very brief excerpt.  You may read this insightful commentary in its entirety here.
 
"The recent spike in global political-financial volatility that was temporarily soothed by ECB covered bond buying reveals another crack in the six-year-old throw-money-at-the-banks strategies of politicians and central bankers.

The premise of using banks as credit portals to transport public funds from the government to citizens is as inefficient as it is not happening. The power elite may exude belabored moans about slow growth and rising inequality in speeches and press releases, but they continue to find ways to provide liquidity, sustenance and comfort to financial institutions, not to populations.

The very fact - that without excessive artificial stimulation or the promise of it - more hell breaks loose - is one that government heads neither admit, nor appear to discuss. But the truth is that the global financial system has already failed. Big banks have been propped up, and their capital bases rejuvenated, by various means of external intervention, not their own business models..."




Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Option Expiration, Markets In Lockdown


One of the savvier traders and commentators I know told me this morning that 'the markets are in lockdown,' and I think he had it exactly right.

The Fed is very sensitive to provoking a market sell off in anything except precious metals perhaps when they formally announce the end to QE III tomorrow.

I would expect an extra effort to placate stocks and bonds. Moderate growth, low inflation, all is well, but we'll act quickly in case anything upsets our clientele on Wall Street. As for Main Street, we'll send a 'get well card.'

If there are any fireworks coming in the metals it would be an FOMC related 'gut check' over the next couple of days.

You would have to be almost blind, deaf, and dumb, or maybe just a willfully whole lot of the last of these, to not yet realize that something very big is going on in the world of global economics.

Have you noticed that the US and a few of its client states seem to be at odds with just about everyone else in the world? That is the currency war. It is the struggle to maintain and increase political dominance through the use of the dollar and financial institutions, essentially to control the world's money supply and extend the Pax Anglo-Americana forever.

It is good to remember that just are there are military neo-cons pursuing the New American Century, so there are financial counterparts, who while a minority have enormous financial power and thereby political influence.

Change is coming. It will take longer than we expect, but when it starts to show, it will come much faster than expected.

Have a pleasant evening.